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Tundran Tempest

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Here’s a first, an alternate WWI scenario where it’s not actually WWI as we know it ITTL; rather one that takes place well over a decade later. And before anyone points this out, no I have not played Codename Eagle, of which has a similar premise and yes I’m aware both this map and that old PC game have some similaries but they’re merely coincidences; I'm basing this off of speculation about a delayed WWI from AH.com. And of course I should mention that this is my first map in like over four months, though the concept started long before that but I digress.

Anyway, the POD is obviously Garrivo Princip not being able to assassinate the Austro-Hungarian Archduke Francis Ferdinand in July 1914 due to the guards being able to intercept him before he got a perfect shot. He still gets captured and later executed like OTL, but with Ferdinand and his wife surviving ITTL causes some big changes for Europe and the world. For one thing, Austria-Hungary doesn’t get driven to go into conflict with Serbia which would have in turn driven Russia to attack and start the war as we know it IOTL; instead they kept their cool and negotiated a friendship treaty of which Serbia reluctantly accepts. And of course peace prevailed throughout Europe, but yet the tensions between Germany and its enemies still remain. Meanwhile Austria-Hungary then with Ferdinand on the throne undergoes a series of reforms to ensure stability and improvement within its territory, with the country becoming the United States of the Danube by the end of the 1910’s. At the same time, establishing economic and cultural relations with Germany and Italy through the Triple Alliance, including giving Italy the region of South Tyrol and sharing ports with it along its Balkan coasts. However, Italy cozying up with the alliance would slowly turn off France and Russia. The United Kingdom throughout this time maintained good relations with Germany just as they had during the failed assassination on Ferdinand, which also annoyed the two rivals of Germany to the point of renewing the Great Game between the Russian and British Empires, of which would have consequences in the years to come. Meanwhile other world events would shape the geopolitical landscape.

 In the mid-1910’s, China fell apart into various warlord states and the European powers and Japan came in and picked up the pieces with the USA stepping in to back the remnant Republic of China that basically serves as a banana republic to service Western interests and check foreign interests in former China. The Ottoman empire went the same way in the early 1920’s, with many of its Arabian regions taken over and carved up by the European powers and its enemies, the Greeks, Bulgarians, Italians, and Russians annexing pieces of its homeland, with a rump Turkey left in the process, hating almost everyone around them. The Scrambles for China and the Middle East would often accelerate tensions between the competing nations, namely the Triple Alliance against the French-Russian Entente, with Britain and Japan becoming technical allies to the TA. The United States served as the leading neutral power, more akin to a sleeping giant of sorts, yet began to lean more towards the TA after a diplomatic scandal broke out regarding French aid to Mexican and Filipino insurgents that were targeting US interests, especially during the US occupation of Mexico during the 1910’s. In 1923, a Second Russo-Japanese War broke out due to a dispute between Japanese and Russian railway companies getting out of hand. Once again, the Japanese were able to defeat the Russians thanks to UK and German aid and the Russian Empire suffered defeat, but this time there would be consequences. A sea of change swept through the Russian Empire with the old Tsar, Nicholas II, dead from mysterious circumstances and in his place his son Alexander, a more aggressive leader, took over. His rule seeks to avenge the losses gained from the first and second Russo-Japanese Wars and gain influence at the expense of both Germany’s and the UK’s. It was at this point that the UK decided to cement good relations with Berlin to the point of joint military exercises and intelligence gathering; France in response did the same with the Russians. All of this, along with the growing rivalries between Argentina and Brazil, would add to the powder kegs being set around the world in ways more so than before 1914.

And before continuing, it should be important to note that technology of TTL’s 1928 is a decade behind that of OTL’s 1928 in some areas, especially the military that generally has armored vehicles, airplanes, and naval ships that resemble that of the later stages of OTL’s WWI. However there seems to be some form of television and computers in use by TTL’s 1928 thanks to the people behind them being spared by the aversion of a war in 1914, though the would-be inventors and scientists might not be so lucky by TTL’s 1928. Culturally and socially, TTL’s 1928 hadn’t yet known a wave of liberalism that emerged from OTL’s WWI and of course is expectedly more conservative and prone to appealing to emotional nationalism than pragmatism; though socialist extremism still has a presence but Soviet-style communism remains a fringe ideology in parts of Russia, Germany, and the Danube, though socialist activists are often used as proxies by their respective sides to disrupt the stabilities of their enemies. Rarely would they unite both TTL’s Central and Entente Powers to fight said activists, but their existence wouldn’t matter given how tension filled 1928 is.

And of course the powder keg in Europe would be set off when on June 6th, 1928 when a group of terrorists alleged to be Polish nationalists massacred a number of people (mostly Russians) in an air station* in Warsaw of the Vistula Land region of Russia, mostly with firearms, on what became known as “Crimson Day” or C-Day. While Russian and Russian allied news outlets claimed that the attack was backed by the TA yet the TA and other allied nations believed it was staged by the Okhrana, thus making C-Day an alleged false flag of sorts. Making matters are the negotiations constantly keep breaking down, resulting in both the Triple Alliance and the Entente withdrawing their respective ambassadors and closing their respective embassies. On June 10th, 1928, a recon regiment from the Imperial Russian Army trespassed in German soil in East Prussia and was fired upon by the German garrisons; whether it was deliberate or not didn’t matter as the regiment fought back, forcing the Germans to bring reinforcements and the regiment retreated before the Germans were able to finish them off. What followed was a massive assault by the IRA across the Prussian border, which then marked the beginning of a great war that would later become known as the World War.

*TTL’s term for airports.

Update: Fixed the color panels for the important world powers.

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kyuzoaoi's avatar
So WWI ends up being a Polish powder keg.